Rates desk

Four of the majors met inside eight days and three of them tightened. The Fed's first hike since 2023 landed on 16 September, the ECB's took effect the same day, and the BoJ followed on the 18th. The BoE was the odd one out, holding 6 to 3 with three members already voting to move. Energy is the common thread: the Middle East conflict has pushed headline inflation back above target in every major bloc.

Federal Reserve

+25bp

16 Sep, 12-0, to 3.75-4.00%

ECB

+25bp

Decided 10 Sep, effective 16 Sep

Bank of England

Hold

17 Sep, 6-3, three voted to hike

Bank of Japan

+25bp

18 Sep, 7-2, effective 24 Sep

USD, GBP and EUR

Policy rate, the overnight benchmark that actually prices paper, the front of the government curve, and the inflation print the committee is reacting to.

USD

Federal Reserve Fed funds target range · Chair Kevin Warsh

3.75-4.00%

Raised 25bp on 16 Sep 2026

Overnight benchmark: SOFR 3.85%18 Sep fixing. 30-day average SOFR 3.68% as at 21 Sep. EFFR around 3.88%.
Front of the curve: 3M bill 4.08%1Y 4.41% · 2Y 4.76% · 10Y 4.96%, after touching a 19-year high of 5.04% last week.
Inflation: CPI 3.4%August, unchanged on July. Core 2.4%, the softest since March 2021. Next print 14 Oct.
Next decision: 27-28 OctSeptember dots put 12 of 18 participants at a further quarter point by year end.

GBP

Bank of England Bank Rate · Governor Andrew Bailey

3.75%

Sixth consecutive hold, 17 Sep 2026

Overnight benchmark: SONIA 3.73%1 Sep fixing, tracking roughly 2bp under Bank Rate as usual.
The vote: 6-3 to holdMann, Greene and Pill all voted for 4.00%. Bailey has said the longer energy volatility lasts, the more likely a rise becomes.
Inflation: CPI 3.1%August, a five-month high and the first above 3% since March. The Bank's own forecast peaks above 4% in early 2027.
Next decision: 5 NovComes with a full Monetary Policy Report. With three dissents already on the board, it is the live one.

EUR

European Central Bank Deposit facility · MRO 2.65% · Marginal lending 2.90%

2.50%

Raised 25bp, effective 16 Sep 2026

Overnight benchmark: €STR 2.441%18 Sep fixing, now fully reflecting the hike. Sits about 6bp under the deposit rate, as it normally does.
What drove it: Energy +14.3%Highest since January 2023. Services inflation actually eased to 3.0%.
Inflation: HICP 3.2%August final, up from 2.9% in July. Core 2.4%. Next flash estimate 30 Sep.
Next decision: 29 Oct€STR futures price roughly a two-in-three chance of another 25bp to 2.75%.

The rest of the majors

Useful when a client asks why their CHF or JPY cash is priced the way it is.

Bank	Policy rate	Level	Latest	Next decision
Bank of Japan JPY	Overnight call rate	1.25%	Raised 25bp on 18 Sep, 7-2. Highest since 1995. New guideline effective 24 Sep.	29-30 Oct
Swiss National Bank CHF	Policy rate	0.00%	The lowest of the majors. Consensus is a hold.	24 Sep
Bank of Canada CAD	Overnight target	2.25%	Unchanged through all of 2026. July headline CPI 3.0%, but core measures near 2%.	28 Oct
Reserve Bank of Australia AUD	Cash rate	4.35%	The highest of the majors, a 4.35 point spread over the SNB.	29 Sep
Reserve Bank of New Zealand NZD	Official cash rate	2.75%	Has been tightening alongside the BoJ rather than easing.	Check RBNZ

Overnight funding benchmarks

The risk-free rate for each currency, with its spread to the policy rate. The spread is the useful column: it shows whether the benchmark has actually absorbed the last policy move yet.

Benchmark	Rate	Fixing date	Policy rate	Spread	Administered by
SOFR USD, secured	3.85%	18 Sep	3.75-4.00%	Inside the range	NY Fed
EFFR USD, unsecured	3.88%	Latest	3.75-4.00%	Upper half	NY Fed
30-day average SOFR	3.68%	21 Sep	n/a	Backward looking	NY Fed
SONIA GBP, unsecured	3.73%	1 Sep	3.75%	-2bp	Bank of England
€STR EUR, unsecured	2.441%	18 Sep	2.50%	-6bp	ECB
SARON CHF, secured	-0.05%	14 Aug	0.00%	-5bp	SIX
TONA JPY, unsecured	not captured	n/a	1.25% from 24 Sep	Sits just under policy	Bank of Japan

Two caveats on this table. SARON is the 14 August fixing, the most recent the SNB has published in a form I could confirm, and it has been pinned between -0.04% and -0.05% all year so it is unlikely to have moved. TONA is the one genuine hole: the BoJ publishes it daily as a spreadsheet rather than a feed, so it needs either a manual pull or a scraper. The guideline moves to around 1.25% on 24 September and TONA historically tracks just below it.

Next decisions

Counting from today. Anything inside a fortnight is flagged.

Late October is the pile-up. The Fed, BoC, BoJ and ECB all decide inside four days, 27 to 30 October. If you are scheduling client conversations about duration or reinvestment, the week either side of that is where the repricing happens.

Markets

Levels at the 21 September close.

Index	Level	Day	Year to date
S&P 500	7,764.70	+1.49%	+13.4%
Nasdaq Composite	27,122.09	+2.26%	Record close
Dow Jones Industrial Average	52,048.83	+0.71%	n/a
Russell 2000	2,875.36	+0.52%	n/a
FTSE 100	10,739.01	+0.75%	+7.9% approx
CAC 40	8,150	+1.05%	Roughly flat, approx
DAX	n/a	+1.09%	n/a
Nikkei 225	n/a	n/a	+29.2%
S&P/TSX	n/a	n/a	+13.6%
Hang Seng	n/a	n/a	−2.3%
BSE Sensex	n/a	n/a	−12.2%

Elsewhere	Level	Context
US 10-year Treasury	4.96%	Down 4bp on the day. Hit 5.04% last week, a 19-year high.
US 30-year Treasury	5.28%	Curve upward sloping across the whole maturity spectrum.
VIX	14.87	Calm, despite the rate repricing.
Brent crude	~$100	Fourth consecutive session lower. The single biggest driver of the inflation story.
Gold	~$4,390	Per ounce.
Bitcoin	~$86,000	Up around 6% on the day.

Foreign exchange

ECB euro reference rates for 21 September, with the dollar crosses derived from them.

Currency	Against EUR	Against USD
US dollar	1.1490	n/a	ECB reference rate
Pound sterling	0.85780	1.3395	GBP/USD derived
Japanese yen	180.70	157.27	USD/JPY derived
Swiss franc	0.9438	0.8214	USD/CHF derived
Canadian dollar	1.6091	1.4004	USD/CAD derived
Australian dollar	1.6098	0.7137	AUD/USD derived

These are ECB reference rates for 21 September, not tradeable levels. The ECB fixes them once a day at around 14:15 CET and publishes at 16:00. They are the right thing to quote in a document and the wrong thing to quote to someone about to trade. Everything in the USD column other than the dollar itself is a cross derived from the euro legs.

Three things worth saying to a client

The parts of the above that are actually commercially useful rather than just interesting.

Money funds lag, fixed terms do not	A constant-NAV fund's seven-day yield takes weeks to reflect a hike. One large USD government fund was quoted at 3.63% going into the 16 September meeting and is expected to reach roughly 3.88% only over the following weeks. A fixed-term instrument priced today prices off today's curve.
The front end is already ahead of the Fed	The 3-month bill at 4.08% sits above the top of the 3.75-4.00% target range. The market is not waiting for October. Anyone holding cash at a rate that has not moved is falling behind twice over.
The blocs have diverged by tenor, not just by level	USD and EUR are both tightening but from 3.75% and 2.50%. GBP is on hold with a split committee. That spread, and the differing expectations behind it, is exactly what makes a multi-currency conversation worth having rather than a single-currency one.